Andy Hall

Andrew Hall’s latest 13F shows a portfolio built around concentrated macro bets rather than diversified equity exposure. His top holdings are dominated by energy futures and Treasury instruments, a combination that reflects a direct wager on inflation persistence and supply-side constraints. Hall has historically avoided the crowded tech and growth names that anchor most large hedge fund filings, and this quarter is no different: there is no meaningful position in the mega-cap software or semiconductor names that dominate peer portfolios. The recent quarter saw Hall trim his long-duration Treasury positions while adding to crude oil and natural gas contracts. That move suggests he is positioning for a steeper yield curve and firmer commodity prices, a stance that diverges from the consensus view that disinflation will allow central banks to cut rates aggressively. His conviction is visible in the size of his largest positions: the top five holdings account for over 60% of reported assets, a level of concentration that few macro managers maintain. Hall also added a modest position in gold futures, which he had avoided for two consecutive quarters. What separates Hall from his peers is not the direction of his trades but the lack of hedging. Most macro funds pair commodity longs with short equity index exposure or options overlays. Hall’s filing shows no such offsets. He is running a pure, unhedged expression of his macro thesis, which makes his quarterly returns more volatile but also more transparent. The absence of any financial sector exposure, despite rising rate expectations, is another tell: Hall is not betting on banks benefiting from steeper curves, but on the raw inputs themselves. His portfolio remains a clean, high-conviction statement that inflation and energy scarcity are the dominant forces of the current cycle.